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Statistical function

FORECAST.ETS.STAT

Returns a statistical value from an exponential smoothing forecast, like the smoothing parameters or error measures.

Rarely usedDifficulty 1550 · AdvancedUsage rank #442 of 520
Practice · 2 questions →

When to use it

A statistic from the exponential smoothing model: 1 alpha, 2 beta, 3 gamma, 4 MASE, 5 SMAPE, 6 MAE, 7 RMSE, 8 step size.

The shape of it

Syntax
=FORECAST.ETS.STAT(values, timeline, statistic_type, ...)

Worked examples

  • Alpha

    =FORECAST.ETS.STAT(B2:B37,A2:A37,1) → 0.75

    Alpha: how much weight the model gives recent values.

  • RMSE

    =FORECAST.ETS.STAT(B2:B37,A2:A37,7) → 58.2

    RMSE of the fit in the data's units.

  • SMAPE

    =FORECAST.ETS.STAT(B2:B37,A2:A37,5) → 0.047

    SMAPE: about 4.7% average error.

Worth knowing

  • Compare RMSE (7) across seasonality settings to choose the best model.
  • The Forecast Sheet tool shows these in its statistics table.
  • Statistic 8 is the detected timeline step.

Where it goes wrong

  • #NUM! for a statistic type outside 1 to 8.
  • Timeline must be regular.

Related

AVERAGECOUNTCOUNTACOUNTIFCOUNTIFSMAX

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