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Statistical function

FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT

Returns a confidence interval for a forecast value at a target date using exponential smoothing.

Rarely usedDifficulty 1550 · AdvancedUsage rank #441 of 520
Practice · 2 questions →

When to use it

The confidence interval half-width for a FORECAST.ETS value at a target date. Add and subtract it from the forecast to draw a band.

The shape of it

Syntax
=FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(target_date, values, timeline, [confidence_level], ...)

Worked examples

  • Default 95%

    =FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A38,B2:B37,A2:A37) → 112

    The 95% band is forecast ± 112.

  • 80% band

    =FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A38,B2:B37,A2:A37,0.8) → 73

    An 80% band is narrower.

  • Upper bound

    =FORECAST.ETS(A38,B2:B37,A2:A37)+FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A38,B2:B37,A2:A37) → 1,396

    The upper bound of the 95% band.

Worth knowing

  • The Forecast Sheet tool generates these columns automatically.
  • Bands widen further into the future.
  • Use the same seasonality and aggregation arguments as the forecast.

Where it goes wrong

  • #VALUE! when the timeline is irregular.
  • Confidence level must be between 0 and 1 exclusive.

Related

AVERAGECOUNTCOUNTACOUNTIFCOUNTIFSMAX

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